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Taking a Ride on the Learning Curve

11/26/2022

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            Looking unusually glum, Pete sat sulking on the curb when…Whoosh! Solomon went whizzing by.  Moments later…Swish! back flew Solomon almost before Pete had a chance to look up.  Zipp! Sol raced by a third time but screeched to a halt right in front of his old rival, Pete Rolleum.  “Why so gloomy?” Sol Arre asked. “Oh yeah.  I almost forgot; you never jumped on a rapid Learning Curve did you. 

           “Nope,” Pete frowned.  “I never really got it.  I mean, people loosely use the term ‘learning curve’ to mean how fast they pick up a new skill.  I never understood that the Learning Curve is actually a mathematical concept that can identify trends of how fast the cost for a manufactured product will drop dependent upon how fast that product’s use expands.  Me and my fossil fuel buddies never developed that trend.  We’re pretty much stuck at the same (inflation adjusted) spot pricewise as we were some 140 years ago.  But you’re whizzing all over the place!”

            “Oh, you bet I am!  Batteries, wind energy and I having been cruising on a steep learning curve for years.  Our costs are dropping dramatically as our use is expanding rapidly.  It’s almost hard to believe, but I cost over 1,000 times less than when I was first commercially available in 1958.  Now, I’m the least expensive source of energy around, and I’m riding that curve to even lower costs.

            “And here’s the thing.  The more quickly humans expand solar, wind and battery use, the more quickly our costs will drop even further.  Graphs of our trends-lines from an Oxford University study* show that adopting me and my pals as rapidly as possible will increasingly save money while reducing harmful emissions.  Some folks claim it’s too costly to transition to clean energy.  But because of our steep learning curves, transitioning isn’t a cost at all; it’s a huge savings worth trillions of dollars over the coming decades.
 
            “Sorry to say pal, but humans would be wise to tip their hats to you and your buddies and say, ‘Thanks for your service, but we’re investing in clean energy from now on,’” Sol confided.  “Because the benefits are just too good to delay any further on this, our only home, where we’re all forever …Earthbound.”
 
* Search - Empirically grounded technology forecasts
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Because Mom Says So

11/26/2022

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       Cassie couldn’t resist stopping by the last farmers market of the season.  She spotted her friend, Skip, busy attending to customers.  Later, as the crowd thinned, Cassie was glad to have a moment with him.  “I’m always impressed with the quality of your produce and with the work you do.  You’re a real role-model for those of us who care about the environment,”  Cass exclaimed.

       “Well, I do what I can,” Skip nodded. “As you know, I’m all about local healthy foods, clean water and soil preservation.  There’s so much good work to be done.  Thanks for noticing.”

       Cass stayed to help Skip pack up. “You’re so busy; let me know if I can give you a lift to the polls on the 8th,” she offered.”  Skip gave Cass a funny look. “Er… thanks,” he replied, “but I’m probably busy that day.  Does it make any difference anyway?  I haven’t been bothering to vote lately,” Skip D. Polls admitted.

       “Oh!” Cass said, a bit startled. “You’re one of the 12 million I read about.*  I was surprised to learn that in the 2018 mid-term elections there were 12 million dedicated environmentalists like you, who didn’t vote.  They all had their reasons.  But the Environmental Voter Project (EVP) points out that many elections, especially in so-called swing states like Wisconsin, are decided by just a percentage point or two, a few thousand votes.  EVP suggests that the single most powerful thing environmentally-conscious folks can do is to vote because the thing politicians care about most is winning elections.  If they know the folks who regularly vote care about environmental issues, they’ll pay attention.” Cass DaBallut concluded.

       “Whoa!  You mean my vote could be one of the few thousand that flips an election one way or another?  I guess I never realized I had that much influence.  It’s certainly worth it for me to miss an environmental rally or meeting to take the time to vote,” Skip agreed.  “But I’m not sure I’m even registered.”

       “Easy enough,” Cass advised. “Just go to myvote.wi.gov.  You’ll find out all you need to know.  Because you know what Mom Earth would say – ‘I’m counting on YOU, and so are the generations to come.’”

       “You’re right.  I’ll take that ride after all,” Skip smiled, “because this is our only home.  It’s where we’re all forever …Earthbound.”
* www.environmentalvoter.org
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Leaky Lee

11/10/2022

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       Leaky Lee knew this day would come.  He was actually surprised it hadn’t come sooner because the Smart family was just that, smart.  But, the appliance truck just turned into the driveway.  Workers hoisted up the back door, and there she was, shiny, sleek and Energy Star certified.  Electra Range smiled as she surveyed her new home.

       Inside, Lee sensed the workers disconnecting him from the gas line while Electra was wheeled in.  Lee had a few minutes with her alone before he would be taken away to the salvage yard.  There was so much he wanted to tell her.

       “Good to meet you; I’m Lee Keystove,” he began. “Welcome.  It’s clearly time for me to go; this family deserves better.  In hindsight, it’s really quite remarkable the Smarts even let a gas cook stove into their house.  Turning me on creates combustion, and combustion releases (or leaks) toxic pollutants like nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide and formaldehyde inside the house. 

       “A couple weeks ago Mrs. Smart rented an air monitor because she’d learned that kids in homes with gas stoves increase their risk of respiratory illnesses by 20%.  To test the level of NO2 in the house, she made a pot of tea and baked a pan of brownies.  After a half hour the monitor indicated there were 207 parts per billion (ppb) of NO2 in the air.  That’s almost TWICE the maximum amount recommended by the World Health Organization!  It didn’t take the Smarts long to realize I had to go.

       “On top of that, the natural gas supply system – drilling, fracking, processing and transportation -  is notorious for leaking greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.  The Smarts decided replacing me is just the first step toward weaning their home off of natural gas.  As appliances need replacing, they’ll swap them out for electric ones and maybe add a heat pump to reduce their furnace use.  A heat pump would use the ambient air temperature to both heat and cool their home,” Lee concluded.

       As he was wheeled into the truck, Lee couldn’t help but admire the collection of electric Energy Star certified appliance ready for delivery. “I’ve had my day,” Leaky mused. “Now it’s time to build a healthier, cleaner world.  After all, for humans and all creatures this is the only home they’ll ever know.  It’s where they’re all forever …Earthbound.”
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    I'm interested in the topics of sustainability and climate change especially in regards to our local area in southwest Wisconsin.

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